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ORIGINAL REPORT ANALYSIS

MNQ × MES SMT analysis

研究リポジトリの記録をサイト上で表示しています。

元のMarkdown

MNQ × MES SMT analysis

値は PF / Trades。* は100取引未満で判定保留。

Discovery / retrospective Validationは時系列分割だが、2026年MNQの損益は以前の研究で閲覧済み。独立した未使用Holdoutではない。

これらは約定済みTradeの事後コホート集計であり、Filter付き戦略を再実行した実行可能P&Lではない。

SMTは単独StrategyではなくContext。BullishはLong、BearishはShortと一致した約定済みTradeを方向一致コホートとする。

Swingは過去の確定HTF期間の高値/安値と、現在までの部分HTF高値/安値との非対称更新。中心Pivot・未来確定Pivotは使わない。

3mは元データ5mから生成不能で、欠損(noneではない)。日足・週足は途中までの高値/安値のみを使う。

StrategyPeriodSMT TFKnown-base PF / nDirection-matched PF / n
donchian_20_10discovery3munavailable—
donchian_20_10discovery5m0.97 / 28110.68 / 66*
donchian_20_10discovery10m0.97 / 28110.85 / 69*
donchian_20_10discovery15m0.97 / 28110.72 / 76*
donchian_20_10discovery30m0.97 / 28111.18 / 85*
donchian_20_10discovery60m0.97 / 28111.18 / 124
donchian_20_10discovery90m0.97 / 28110.88 / 170
donchian_20_10discovery4h0.97 / 28111.00 / 168
donchian_20_10discovery1d0.97 / 28110.78 / 136
donchian_20_10discovery1w0.97 / 28110.97 / 74*
donchian_20_10retrospective_validation3munavailable—
donchian_20_10retrospective_validation5m0.99 / 20751.13 / 64*
donchian_20_10retrospective_validation10m0.99 / 20751.08 / 55*
donchian_20_10retrospective_validation15m0.99 / 20751.53 / 40*
donchian_20_10retrospective_validation30m0.99 / 20751.13 / 64*
donchian_20_10retrospective_validation60m0.99 / 20750.85 / 85*
donchian_20_10retrospective_validation90m0.99 / 20750.79 / 118
donchian_20_10retrospective_validation4h0.99 / 20751.09 / 126
donchian_20_10retrospective_validation1d0.99 / 20750.83 / 182
donchian_20_10retrospective_validation1w0.99 / 20750.85 / 125
donchian_ema_atrdiscovery3munavailable—
donchian_ema_atrdiscovery5m1.00 / 19450.72 / 48*
donchian_ema_atrdiscovery10m1.00 / 19450.96 / 48*
donchian_ema_atrdiscovery15m1.00 / 19450.79 / 57*
donchian_ema_atrdiscovery30m1.00 / 19451.17 / 51*
donchian_ema_atrdiscovery60m1.00 / 19451.03 / 68*
donchian_ema_atrdiscovery90m1.00 / 19450.64 / 110
donchian_ema_atrdiscovery4h1.00 / 19450.97 / 98*
donchian_ema_atrdiscovery1d1.00 / 19451.01 / 66*
donchian_ema_atrdiscovery1w1.00 / 19451.13 / 44*
donchian_ema_atrretrospective_validation3munavailable—
donchian_ema_atrretrospective_validation5m0.96 / 14891.29 / 52*
donchian_ema_atrretrospective_validation10m0.96 / 14890.97 / 45*
donchian_ema_atrretrospective_validation15m0.96 / 14891.26 / 33*
donchian_ema_atrretrospective_validation30m0.96 / 14891.07 / 42*
donchian_ema_atrretrospective_validation60m0.96 / 14891.11 / 41*
donchian_ema_atrretrospective_validation90m0.96 / 14891.06 / 67*
donchian_ema_atrretrospective_validation4h0.96 / 14891.45 / 76*
donchian_ema_atrretrospective_validation1d0.96 / 14890.93 / 97*
donchian_ema_atrretrospective_validation1w0.96 / 14890.94 / 72*
supertrend_flipdiscovery3munavailable—
supertrend_flipdiscovery5m1.02 / 16511.10 / 27*
supertrend_flipdiscovery10m1.02 / 16510.69 / 33*
supertrend_flipdiscovery15m1.02 / 16510.53 / 36*
supertrend_flipdiscovery30m1.02 / 16511.04 / 63*
supertrend_flipdiscovery60m1.02 / 16511.17 / 101
supertrend_flipdiscovery90m1.02 / 16511.06 / 135
supertrend_flipdiscovery4h1.02 / 16511.19 / 134
supertrend_flipdiscovery1d1.02 / 16511.20 / 91*
supertrend_flipdiscovery1w1.02 / 16511.40 / 41*
supertrend_flipretrospective_validation3munavailable—
supertrend_flipretrospective_validation5m1.00 / 12861.55 / 35*
supertrend_flipretrospective_validation10m1.00 / 12861.81 / 23*
supertrend_flipretrospective_validation15m1.00 / 12860.98 / 22*
supertrend_flipretrospective_validation30m1.00 / 12860.92 / 49*
supertrend_flipretrospective_validation60m1.00 / 12861.28 / 85*
supertrend_flipretrospective_validation90m1.00 / 12860.91 / 120
supertrend_flipretrospective_validation4h1.00 / 12861.28 / 114
supertrend_flipretrospective_validation1d1.00 / 12860.93 / 121
supertrend_flipretrospective_validation1w1.00 / 12860.79 / 84*
chandelier_flipdiscovery3munavailable—
chandelier_flipdiscovery5m0.99 / 23370.69 / 63*
chandelier_flipdiscovery10m0.99 / 23370.71 / 73*
chandelier_flipdiscovery15m0.99 / 23370.95 / 81*
chandelier_flipdiscovery30m0.99 / 23371.05 / 104
chandelier_flipdiscovery60m0.99 / 23371.03 / 161
chandelier_flipdiscovery90m0.99 / 23371.06 / 185
chandelier_flipdiscovery4h0.99 / 23370.91 / 195
chandelier_flipdiscovery1d0.99 / 23370.72 / 128
chandelier_flipdiscovery1w0.99 / 23371.14 / 56*
chandelier_flipretrospective_validation3munavailable—
chandelier_flipretrospective_validation5m1.00 / 17240.67 / 63*
chandelier_flipretrospective_validation10m1.00 / 17240.95 / 58*
chandelier_flipretrospective_validation15m1.00 / 17240.61 / 60*
chandelier_flipretrospective_validation30m1.00 / 17241.15 / 79*
chandelier_flipretrospective_validation60m1.00 / 17241.07 / 112
chandelier_flipretrospective_validation90m1.00 / 17240.85 / 155
chandelier_flipretrospective_validation4h1.00 / 17241.21 / 163
chandelier_flipretrospective_validation1d1.00 / 17240.87 / 171
chandelier_flipretrospective_validation1w1.00 / 17240.82 / 114
ema_ribbondiscovery3munavailable—
ema_ribbondiscovery5m0.97 / 22810.86 / 134
ema_ribbondiscovery10m0.97 / 22810.88 / 156
ema_ribbondiscovery15m0.97 / 22811.02 / 138
ema_ribbondiscovery30m0.97 / 22810.97 / 128
ema_ribbondiscovery60m0.97 / 22811.07 / 141
ema_ribbondiscovery90m0.97 / 22811.32 / 137
ema_ribbondiscovery4h0.97 / 22810.80 / 84*
ema_ribbondiscovery1d0.97 / 22810.72 / 47*
ema_ribbondiscovery1w0.97 / 22810.57 / 41*
ema_ribbonretrospective_validation3munavailable—
ema_ribbonretrospective_validation5m0.93 / 16620.87 / 88*
ema_ribbonretrospective_validation10m0.93 / 16620.65 / 106
ema_ribbonretrospective_validation15m0.93 / 16620.70 / 106
ema_ribbonretrospective_validation30m0.93 / 16620.94 / 100
ema_ribbonretrospective_validation60m0.93 / 16620.88 / 86*
ema_ribbonretrospective_validation90m0.93 / 16620.99 / 92*
ema_ribbonretrospective_validation4h0.93 / 16621.34 / 46*
ema_ribbonretrospective_validation1d0.93 / 16620.91 / 99*
ema_ribbonretrospective_validation1w0.93 / 16621.07 / 74*
squeeze_releasediscovery3munavailable—
squeeze_releasediscovery5m1.10 / 20140.23 / 47*
squeeze_releasediscovery10m1.10 / 20140.30 / 20*
squeeze_releasediscovery15m1.10 / 20141.45 / 22*
squeeze_releasediscovery30m1.10 / 20141.39 / 26*
squeeze_releasediscovery60m1.10 / 20141.76 / 62*
squeeze_releasediscovery90m1.10 / 20142.39 / 83*
squeeze_releasediscovery4h1.10 / 20141.05 / 116
squeeze_releasediscovery1d1.10 / 20141.28 / 95*
squeeze_releasediscovery1w1.10 / 20141.28 / 47*
squeeze_releaseretrospective_validation3munavailable—
squeeze_releaseretrospective_validation5m0.87 / 15511.38 / 48*
squeeze_releaseretrospective_validation10m0.87 / 15511.26 / 26*
squeeze_releaseretrospective_validation15m0.87 / 15510.85 / 18*
squeeze_releaseretrospective_validation30m0.87 / 15511.72 / 21*
squeeze_releaseretrospective_validation60m0.87 / 15511.13 / 53*
squeeze_releaseretrospective_validation90m0.87 / 15510.80 / 72*
squeeze_releaseretrospective_validation4h0.87 / 15510.61 / 84*
squeeze_releaseretrospective_validation1d0.87 / 15511.19 / 137
squeeze_releaseretrospective_validation1w0.87 / 15511.31 / 86*
vwap_deviationdiscovery3munavailable—
vwap_deviationdiscovery5m0.83 / 20810.74 / 189
vwap_deviationdiscovery10m0.83 / 20810.81 / 241
vwap_deviationdiscovery15m0.83 / 20810.75 / 284
vwap_deviationdiscovery30m0.83 / 20810.79 / 340
vwap_deviationdiscovery60m0.83 / 20810.64 / 346
vwap_deviationdiscovery90m0.83 / 20810.66 / 351
vwap_deviationdiscovery4h0.83 / 20810.87 / 279
vwap_deviationdiscovery1d0.83 / 20810.92 / 135
vwap_deviationdiscovery1w0.83 / 20810.65 / 41*
vwap_deviationretrospective_validation3munavailable—
vwap_deviationretrospective_validation5m0.87 / 14540.64 / 148
vwap_deviationretrospective_validation10m0.87 / 14540.57 / 166
vwap_deviationretrospective_validation15m0.87 / 14540.62 / 204
vwap_deviationretrospective_validation30m0.87 / 14540.72 / 259
vwap_deviationretrospective_validation60m0.87 / 14540.84 / 291
vwap_deviationretrospective_validation90m0.87 / 14540.87 / 269
vwap_deviationretrospective_validation4h0.87 / 14540.86 / 229
vwap_deviationretrospective_validation1d0.87 / 14540.77 / 149
vwap_deviationretrospective_validation1w0.87 / 14540.79 / 105
rolling_zscorediscovery3munavailable—
rolling_zscorediscovery5m0.92 / 33310.81 / 204
rolling_zscorediscovery10m0.92 / 33310.72 / 265
rolling_zscorediscovery15m0.92 / 33310.77 / 328
rolling_zscorediscovery30m0.92 / 33310.80 / 542
rolling_zscorediscovery60m0.92 / 33310.82 / 467
rolling_zscorediscovery90m0.92 / 33310.65 / 421
rolling_zscorediscovery4h0.92 / 33311.15 / 307
rolling_zscorediscovery1d0.92 / 33310.92 / 177
rolling_zscorediscovery1w0.92 / 33311.05 / 76*
rolling_zscoreretrospective_validation3munavailable—
rolling_zscoreretrospective_validation5m0.91 / 24270.95 / 167
rolling_zscoreretrospective_validation10m0.91 / 24270.94 / 230
rolling_zscoreretrospective_validation15m0.91 / 24270.78 / 281
rolling_zscoreretrospective_validation30m0.91 / 24270.97 / 471
rolling_zscoreretrospective_validation60m0.91 / 24270.76 / 415
rolling_zscoreretrospective_validation90m0.91 / 24270.84 / 371
rolling_zscoreretrospective_validation4h0.91 / 24270.79 / 254
rolling_zscoreretrospective_validation1d0.91 / 24270.63 / 216
rolling_zscoreretrospective_validation1w0.91 / 24270.85 / 170
connors_rsidiscovery3munavailable—
connors_rsidiscovery5m0.85 / 154210.76 / 2247
connors_rsidiscovery10m0.85 / 154210.80 / 2146
connors_rsidiscovery15m0.85 / 154210.80 / 1888
connors_rsidiscovery30m0.85 / 154210.81 / 1512
connors_rsidiscovery60m0.85 / 154210.92 / 1224
connors_rsidiscovery90m0.85 / 154210.78 / 1229
connors_rsidiscovery4h0.85 / 154210.88 / 1083
connors_rsidiscovery1d0.85 / 154211.19 / 823
connors_rsidiscovery1w0.85 / 154210.87 / 336
connors_rsiretrospective_validation3munavailable—
connors_rsiretrospective_validation5m0.89 / 114410.85 / 1794
connors_rsiretrospective_validation10m0.89 / 114410.87 / 1861
connors_rsiretrospective_validation15m0.89 / 114410.92 / 1700
connors_rsiretrospective_validation30m0.89 / 114410.98 / 1373
connors_rsiretrospective_validation60m0.89 / 114411.01 / 1154
connors_rsiretrospective_validation90m0.89 / 114411.02 / 1120
connors_rsiretrospective_validation4h0.89 / 114410.96 / 896
connors_rsiretrospective_validation1d0.89 / 114410.86 / 993
connors_rsiretrospective_validation1w0.89 / 114410.83 / 749
opening_rangediscovery3munavailable—
opening_rangediscovery5m0.95 / 4450.57 / 13*
opening_rangediscovery10m0.95 / 4451.07 / 16*
opening_rangediscovery15m0.95 / 4450.48 / 13*
opening_rangediscovery30m0.95 / 4450.97 / 16*
opening_rangediscovery60m0.95 / 4450.85 / 23*
opening_rangediscovery90m0.95 / 4450.62 / 32*
opening_rangediscovery4h0.95 / 4451.41 / 21*
opening_rangediscovery1d0.95 / 4451.09 / 23*
opening_rangediscovery1w0.95 / 4451.13 / 13*
opening_rangeretrospective_validation3munavailable—
opening_rangeretrospective_validation5m0.99 / 3093.25 / 4*
opening_rangeretrospective_validation10m0.99 / 3090.54 / 4*
opening_rangeretrospective_validation15m0.99 / 3092.27 / 4*
opening_rangeretrospective_validation30m0.99 / 3091.65 / 13*
opening_rangeretrospective_validation60m0.99 / 3090.86 / 17*
opening_rangeretrospective_validation90m0.99 / 3091.57 / 31*
opening_rangeretrospective_validation4h0.99 / 3091.12 / 21*
opening_rangeretrospective_validation1d0.99 / 3090.88 / 35*
opening_rangeretrospective_validation1w0.99 / 3091.02 / 25*
adx_di_crossdiscovery3munavailable—
adx_di_crossdiscovery5m0.90 / 18150.83 / 56*
adx_di_crossdiscovery10m0.90 / 18150.72 / 61*
adx_di_crossdiscovery15m0.90 / 18150.86 / 83*
adx_di_crossdiscovery30m0.90 / 18151.27 / 159
adx_di_crossdiscovery60m0.90 / 18150.86 / 153
adx_di_crossdiscovery90m0.90 / 18151.28 / 162
adx_di_crossdiscovery4h0.90 / 18150.81 / 170
adx_di_crossdiscovery1d0.90 / 18150.85 / 102
adx_di_crossdiscovery1w0.90 / 18150.95 / 48*
adx_di_crossretrospective_validation3munavailable—
adx_di_crossretrospective_validation5m0.80 / 13560.50 / 46*
adx_di_crossretrospective_validation10m0.80 / 13560.89 / 65*
adx_di_crossretrospective_validation15m0.80 / 13560.78 / 83*
adx_di_crossretrospective_validation30m0.80 / 13560.93 / 105
adx_di_crossretrospective_validation60m0.80 / 13561.42 / 121
adx_di_crossretrospective_validation90m0.80 / 13561.07 / 152
adx_di_crossretrospective_validation4h0.80 / 13561.31 / 121
adx_di_crossretrospective_validation1d0.80 / 13560.74 / 135
adx_di_crossretrospective_validation1w0.80 / 13560.97 / 91*
bbw_releasediscovery3munavailable—
bbw_releasediscovery5m0.71 / 7310.20 / 25*
bbw_releasediscovery10m0.71 / 7311.11 / 23*
bbw_releasediscovery15m0.71 / 7311.56 / 25*
bbw_releasediscovery30m0.71 / 7310.27 / 41*
bbw_releasediscovery60m0.71 / 7311.07 / 41*
bbw_releasediscovery90m0.71 / 7310.98 / 47*
bbw_releasediscovery4h0.71 / 7311.46 / 30*
bbw_releasediscovery1d0.71 / 7310.77 / 21*
bbw_releasediscovery1w0.71 / 7310.46 / 25*
bbw_releaseretrospective_validation3munavailable—
bbw_releaseretrospective_validation5m0.95 / 4920.14 / 27*
bbw_releaseretrospective_validation10m0.95 / 4921.05 / 20*
bbw_releaseretrospective_validation15m0.95 / 4920.97 / 20*
bbw_releaseretrospective_validation30m0.95 / 4920.69 / 23*
bbw_releaseretrospective_validation60m0.95 / 4920.30 / 30*
bbw_releaseretrospective_validation90m0.95 / 4920.40 / 43*
bbw_releaseretrospective_validation4h0.95 / 4921.93 / 25*
bbw_releaseretrospective_validation1d0.95 / 4920.96 / 32*
bbw_releaseretrospective_validation1w0.95 / 4920.70 / 27*
kaufman_efficiencydiscovery3munavailable—
kaufman_efficiencydiscovery5m0.87 / 49290.74 / 197
kaufman_efficiencydiscovery10m0.87 / 49290.57 / 77*
kaufman_efficiencydiscovery15m0.87 / 49290.71 / 38*
kaufman_efficiencydiscovery30m0.87 / 49292.00 / 70*
kaufman_efficiencydiscovery60m0.87 / 49291.28 / 180
kaufman_efficiencydiscovery90m0.87 / 49291.51 / 210
kaufman_efficiencydiscovery4h0.87 / 49290.70 / 273
kaufman_efficiencydiscovery1d0.87 / 49291.02 / 214
kaufman_efficiencydiscovery1w0.87 / 49291.08 / 121
kaufman_efficiencyretrospective_validation3munavailable—
kaufman_efficiencyretrospective_validation5m0.86 / 35721.04 / 180
kaufman_efficiencyretrospective_validation10m0.86 / 35721.04 / 74*
kaufman_efficiencyretrospective_validation15m0.86 / 35720.53 / 30*
kaufman_efficiencyretrospective_validation30m0.86 / 35720.89 / 38*
kaufman_efficiencyretrospective_validation60m0.86 / 35721.25 / 111
kaufman_efficiencyretrospective_validation90m0.86 / 35720.80 / 163
kaufman_efficiencyretrospective_validation4h0.86 / 35720.77 / 197
kaufman_efficiencyretrospective_validation1d0.86 / 35720.91 / 306
kaufman_efficiencyretrospective_validation1w0.86 / 35720.88 / 206
displacement_fvgdiscovery3munavailable—
displacement_fvgdiscovery5m0.99 / 124928.70 / 2*
displacement_fvgdiscovery10m0.99 / 12490.74 / 34*
displacement_fvgdiscovery15m0.99 / 12490.76 / 57*
displacement_fvgdiscovery30m0.99 / 12491.15 / 72*
displacement_fvgdiscovery60m0.99 / 12492.47 / 93*
displacement_fvgdiscovery90m0.99 / 12491.50 / 98*
displacement_fvgdiscovery4h0.99 / 12490.72 / 93*
displacement_fvgdiscovery1d0.99 / 12490.95 / 73*
displacement_fvgdiscovery1w0.99 / 12491.22 / 28*
displacement_fvgretrospective_validation3munavailable—
displacement_fvgretrospective_validation5m1.02 / 8950.51 / 6*
displacement_fvgretrospective_validation10m1.02 / 8951.42 / 45*
displacement_fvgretrospective_validation15m1.02 / 8951.67 / 41*
displacement_fvgretrospective_validation30m1.02 / 8951.07 / 72*
displacement_fvgretrospective_validation60m1.02 / 8951.09 / 69*
displacement_fvgretrospective_validation90m1.02 / 8950.96 / 85*
displacement_fvgretrospective_validation4h1.02 / 8950.78 / 77*
displacement_fvgretrospective_validation1d1.02 / 8950.79 / 101
displacement_fvgretrospective_validation1w1.02 / 8950.81 / 74*
madz_reversiondiscovery3munavailable—
madz_reversiondiscovery5m0.81 / 9611.06 / 97*
madz_reversiondiscovery10m0.81 / 9611.02 / 94*
madz_reversiondiscovery15m0.81 / 9610.83 / 86*
madz_reversiondiscovery30m0.81 / 9610.66 / 99*
madz_reversiondiscovery60m0.81 / 9610.79 / 112
madz_reversiondiscovery90m0.81 / 9610.68 / 107
madz_reversiondiscovery4h0.81 / 9610.85 / 89*
madz_reversiondiscovery1d0.81 / 9610.67 / 56*
madz_reversiondiscovery1w0.81 / 9610.26 / 21*
madz_reversionretrospective_validation3munavailable—
madz_reversionretrospective_validation5m1.09 / 7150.80 / 93*
madz_reversionretrospective_validation10m1.09 / 7150.76 / 87*
madz_reversionretrospective_validation15m1.09 / 7150.92 / 80*
madz_reversionretrospective_validation30m1.09 / 7151.24 / 85*
madz_reversionretrospective_validation60m1.09 / 7151.22 / 109
madz_reversionretrospective_validation90m1.09 / 7151.17 / 126
madz_reversionretrospective_validation4h1.09 / 7151.03 / 82*
madz_reversionretrospective_validation1d1.09 / 7151.84 / 64*
madz_reversionretrospective_validation1w1.09 / 7152.11 / 49*

全方向(bullish / bearish / none)の結果は results/summary/smt_performance.csv。

Previous-day、Asia/London/NY-AM session-level、Liquidity-sweep SMTもBar/Trade Featureとして保存。現段階では多重組合せ探索をしない。